Views From Vegas

SCOTT SPREITZER'S VIEW FROM VEGAS

 

Scott Spreitzer

As we get closer to the start of the college football season, I will begin to delve into Iowa & Nebraska football thoughts and opinions from a gambling perspective more often than not.  But here we are in May and smack-dab in the middle of the NBA conference finals. Because of the time of season, I would like to share thoughts from the pertinent league and give you, the reader, my thoughts on how to make a buck or two while watching the NBA playoffs.

 

One of the long-standing truths to wagering on the NBA playoffs has basically been to "pick the winner" and you will cover the spread, i.e., the team that wins the game normally covers the pointspread.  However, life wasn't so easy through the first few days of this spring's postseason.  Through the first 16 playoff games, the outright winner had covered just 7 times, a win percentage of just 43.8-percent. Obviously, winning at that rate for even a short period of time can do serious damage to your bankroll.  The sudden change from recent history was the hot-topic in many Nevada sports books.

 

But after the Dallas Mavericks beat Oklahoma City outright on Monday (game-4), as a 4-point underdog, I decided to change this week's topic and write about one of the most incredible ATS situation I have seen in many years -- and I have been in the business of beating the spread for 20 years.  It goes like this:  The straight-up winner in the last 57 NBA playoff games is on a 51-3-3 spread run!  The outright winner is on a 33-0 ATS run!  Those aren't typos.  You can look them up yourself.  I know what most who read this will think; "okay, but now you

have to pick the outright winner."  Actually you don't have to because the way you bet the game takes care of any handicapping. 

 

To take full advantage of this information, you would bet the favorite minus the points and bet the underdog on the Money Line.  For the novice, this simply means you would have laid the four points with Oklahoma City on Monday night (OKC -4), and also placed a wager on Dallas at "plus-1.65" to simply win the game outright.  As long as the trend continues to win, you're going to make money no matter what.  If OKC, who held a 15-point lead with about five minutes to go in the game would have won, you would have covered the spread, getting back your

money wagered on the favorite while also collecting the "win" money.  You would have lost the Money Line play on Dallas, but you would not have lost any vigorish (vig) because you were betting the underdog to win the game, outright.

 

Obviously, you bet enough on the favorite to cover, to make money or break even if the underdog loses.  If the underdog wins the game outright, the Money Line will take care of the pointspread money lost, by the team that was favored.

 

Let me explain.  Dallas won outright on Monday.  So, if you wagered $100 to win outright, you'd get back your $100 bet, plus another $165, for a total of $265.  Remember, the Money Line was +1.65 that Dallas would win the game, which means you get back $16.50 for every $10 wagered.  The normal vig on a spread in basketball is $11 to win $10.  If you'd bet $120 to win $109 (to ensure you made a few bucks to cover your $100 Money Line loss) you would have lost the $120.  So, you would have shown a profit of $45 for every $100 bet bet.   

 

There is one way you could lose both ends of the bet and that would be if the favorite wins the game outright, but fails to cover the spread. While this is always possible, your bankroll could definitely take the hit of a few losses if you happened to be on a 51-3-3 ATS run!

 

Beginning in mid-June, I will look at college football futures in the Big-10, and specifically on the upcoming Iowa & Nebraska football seasons. I'll look at over/under projected win totals and also at particular games where I feel the Hawkeyes & Huskers will likely be in their best positions to cover individual games and in their toughest spots where taking the other side may be the best way to go.

 

I'm looking forward to being a part of this new HuskerHawkeye venture and providing the tools I have used over the last 20 years to give you the best opportunity to beat the dreaded pointspread.

About Scott:

Scott Spreitzer grew up in a horse racing family. Scott's Uncle, Robert Mundorf was Jockey of the Year at several tracks throughout the 1960's. Besides having a jockey in the family, Scott was also surrounded from birth by trainers and starters. "Growing up around relatives who were all about winning to make a living, showed me the type of attitude, desire, and work ethic it takes to get the job done, year-after-year. You want to eat? You better know how to win."

Scott's proudest achievements took place in front of the Las Vegas betting public. Scott is the only handicapper to advance to three straight Finals in the Station Casinos Football Invitational. In fact, he's the all-time Station Casinos Win Champion. And what's most impressive about Scott's record is that it was compiled with a high volume of selections. Scott released over 500 college football and NFL plays combined, over five seasons, and finished with an awesome, 59% ATS winning mark, as documented by the Sunset Station Casino and the Las Vegas betting public.

By just 25-years of age, Scott was already the co-host of the world famous, "Stardust Line," first made famous by Frank "Lefty" Rosenthal, and later by former NFL RB Jim Brown. He held the position for six years before becoming the host and chief handicapper of "E-Sports Daily," which was heard in over 60 U.S. cities. Scott's spring / summer radio schedule include his "Smash Mouth Sports" handicapping segment emanating from Las Vegas, "Fox Sports AM-920." The show is handicapping-geared, but also includes interviews with some of the biggest names in the athletic & coaching world. The segment, part of Vegas Wise Sports Talk can be heard every Thursday from 6:00 PM to 7:00 PM PT. Scott can be heard each Thursday night and archived at LVRocks.com.

All of Scott's early radio work and his winning public record led to the creation of Smash Mouth Sports in the mid-1990s. In 1996, Scott landed a seat on USA-Network's Sports Desk. And in 1999, Scott became a member of the same network's PROLINE. Scott enters his 15th season as a featured handicapper on network TV.